Blow-out, or blow-up: Why risk still matters

Despite a frenetic start to 2018, much of the trajectory of markets is as expected and forecasts are unchanged for the medium term. However, with indicators that core inflation is rising — particularly in the key US market — it remains to be seen how policymakers will deal with this issue, and also how it will affect investor perceptions about the prices they pay for assets.

Separately, the sovereign bond markets have had a shaky start to 2018 and while we’ll hold back on saying there’s a start of a bear market on bonds, there are two ways it could go — to blow out, or blow up. A blow out would come as gains accrue in the absence of a market shock, like inflation. A blow up could occur with anything that challenges the fundamental macro and policy support for the market, including a growth shock from China, a pick up in wages or inflation, or central banks being slow to respond to inflation.

The near euphoric sentiment evident in January was a good precursor to February’s re-pricing. The bigger risks though are fundamental, and rising inflation is a legitimate cause for caution.

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