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Category Archives: Multi-Asset
In a discussion with Livewire markets David Wanis explains how he is looking at the current investment landscape and highlights two sectors that he believes are looking expensive right now.
Implications of low return forecasts for Balanced Funds
The point of this note is to highlight the embedded shortfall risk in a typical fixed SAA investment strategy (e.g. the typical Australian balanced fund) should returns be low (and clustered) as we currently project.
Aggressive asset allocation within narrow ranges is also unlikely to solve the problem given the structural anchoring to equity market outcomes and the relatively narrow tactical ranges… this is an inherent structural flaw within the SAA model.
The practical implication is that this significantly limits the ability of managers of these types of portfolios to “turn the dial” sufficiently in an environment of compressed and clustered returns or where equity returns are moderate.
There’s too much information that properly processing and drawing meaningful conclusions is pretty difficult, if not damn near impossible and a lot of it is irrelevant. Unless you have a framework to process information and a set of beliefs that underpin this framework then you’ll likely drown in a mire of data and noise – the colour and movement that comes with the instantaneous “analysis” of news, tweets and “alternative facts”.
This is particularly relevant in the current context given the torrent of noise around the global economy and markets…