Category Archives: Simon Doyle

Growth, inflation and central bank cocktails

November was on balance another good month for risk assets reflecting an ongoing cocktail of reasonable growth, low(ish) inflation and gun shy central banks. Equity markets gained (with the exception of the UK and Europe) and credit spreads retraced some of their recent modest widening. Also helping performance was a rally in Australian bonds (as the RBA showed little sign of raising rates), a weaker AUD and a rally in GBP as the UK moved closer to an agreement on Brexit.

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Lessons learnt since 1987

The first is that this job is hard. While it’s easy to look back and identify what you should have done, it’s much harder to make decisions in real time, looking forward into a future that is in large part unknowable. While technology means we can now process more data better and faster (and as a result have better back tests) it doesn’t change the fact that the future is inherently difficult to predict. Being wise in hindsight is popular but unhelpful.
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