In contrast to what is a relatively benign macro outlook, the starting point for key markets is more problematic. Thus achieving high real rates of return by simply hoping for strong underlying market performance would be optimistic.
Tag Archives: Simon Doyle
The challenge for investors is that valuations on most assets are at best fair, and, in most cases more demanding, meaning the risk of loss in many assets is elevated. In the context of our investment framework, there are limited assets offering appealing returns for the risk embedded in owning these assets. In this framework, broader Australian equities stand out as offering reasonable medium-term returns given undemanding valuations. At the other end of the spectrum, we remain concerned about A-REITs (even though they have performed poorly of late) as valuations remain stretched and their sensitivity to small changes in bond yields remains high. Interestingly, while sovereign bonds offer poor return prospects the potential for big losses from owning bonds is relatively low. On balance, the concentration of assets in the lower left-hand quadrant is consistent with retaining a conservative stance notwithstanding enthusiasm around a Trump presidency. As we have seen during the campaign, the reality and the rhetoric may be poles apart.